Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf588…3a02 other 42 markets active 1d ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$10 (+7%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$1
other 47% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +55.7% +40.9% 37% 37% -0.1%
≤30d 35 +55.7% +40.9% 37% 37% -0.1%
≤90d 42 +41.8% +28.3% 40% 38% -7.4%
all 42 +41.8% +28.3% 40% 38% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.3% 38% -7.4%
10% +16.1% 31% -16.2%
15% +4.8% 31% -24.3%
20% -5.4% 21% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage88d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +236%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +292%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$18 +1700%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $21 +$4 +19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +262%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +570%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +102%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +236%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$12 +570%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$8 +36%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $1 +$1 +72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 22 $1 $0 +18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $3 $0 +11%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 31h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 76¢ $21 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.78 · official $2.78 (match) · 85 history records