Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf589…2d92 politics 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,431 (+1%) realized +$1,432 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 128L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,221per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$178
politics 35% −$80
sports 12% +$1,486
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% −$2
world 2% +$28
crypto 1% +$147
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +4.1% -5.8% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 84 +3.7% -6.1% 8% 5% -8.5%
all 155 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 12% -8.8%
10% -18.4% 12% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 10% -25.5%
20% -33.5% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,610) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$8 · ×11.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,032
Realized+$1,432
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,221
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,033 $1,032 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,697 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,281 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,833 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $990 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $335 +$5 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $5,661 −$6 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,256 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,142 −$4 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $57 +$73 +129%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,930 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,045 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $577 +$1 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $708 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,733 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,725 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $7,417 −$8 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $54 +$62 +114%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $4,524 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $975 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $69 +$55 +79%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? May 20 $492 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $2,279 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,190 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,651 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 32m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $476 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $477 2h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $550 41h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $551 43h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $379 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $379 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,289 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,291 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,190 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,192 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,276 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,277 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $898 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $899 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,147 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,148 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $989 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $990 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $989 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $990 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $335 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $886 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $887 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $947 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $948 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $790 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $792 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,032.25 · official $1,032.25 (match) · 493 history records