Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf58a…1c8d sports 28 markets active 3d ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$13 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$32
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$19
sports 42% +$16
culture 8% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +12.7% +2.0% 35% 35% -0.0%
≤30d 24 +18.3% +7.0% 38% 38% +5.8%
≤90d 24 +18.3% +7.0% 38% 38% +5.8%
all 26 +9.2% -1.2% 35% 35% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 35% -7.7%
10% -10.7% 31% -16.5%
15% -19.3% 31% -24.6%
20% -27.2% 27% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage193d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$16 +130%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$32 +53%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -91%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$22 +215%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 +$6 +180%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 +$12 +21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$20 +95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$10 -69%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +63%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $28 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $43 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 3d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 3d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $2 3d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 3d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $18 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.92 · official $16.98 (match) · 66 history records