Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F5 0xf58b…5f34 crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,135 (+21%) realized +$20,711 · open −$576
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%67W / 61L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$624per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$10,439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$746
crypto 32% −$1,538
other 10% +$1,669
sports 1% +$3
finance 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.4% -12.6% 25% 25% -15.5%
≤30d 18 +47.5% +33.5% 56% 56% +38.6%
≤90d 128 +11.4% +0.8% 52% 44% -9.2%
all 128 +11.4% +0.8% 52% 44% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 44% -9.2%
10% -8.9% 38% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -17.7% 35% -25.8%
20% -25.7% 34% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$525) neutral
Persistence
early +28% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$329 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$10,439
Realized+$20,711
Unrealized−$576
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions25
Markets (closed)128 / 152
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$624
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 92¢ 95¢ $1,285 $1,336 +$52 (+4%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 84¢ $872 $1,132 +$260 (+30%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $1,108 $1,116 +$8 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $500 $1,000 +$500 (+100%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $673 $750 +$77 (+11%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $786 $661 −$124 (-16%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $514 $572 +$58 (+11%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $475 $533 +$59 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $492 $452 −$40 (-8%)
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 95¢ 100¢ $380 $399 +$19 (+5%)
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? Yes 55¢ 25¢ $780 $357 −$423 (-54%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $660 $285 −$375 (-57%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 55¢ 22¢ $686 $269 −$418 (-61%)
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $229 $258 +$29 (+13%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 86¢ $233 $256 +$24 (+10%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 72¢ $183 $214 +$32 (+17%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 55¢ 36¢ $330 $213 −$117 (-35%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 76¢ 62¢ $152 $124 −$28 (-18%)
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $108 $111 +$3 (+3%)
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 65¢ 74¢ $94 $106 +$12 (+13%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 39¢ 13¢ $235 $78 −$157 (-67%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $76 $64 −$13 (-16%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 71¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+69%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 31¢ 29¢ $55 $51 −$4 (-7%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $78 $50 −$28 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $46 +$154 +335%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$97 +238%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 10 $51 +$49 +96%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 10 $102 +$98 +96%
HYPE Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$29 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $347 +$353 +102%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $62 −$42 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $196 +$204 +104%
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? Jun 05 $248 +$62 +25%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $174 +$426 +245%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 24 $525 −$66 -13%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 21 $37 +$29 +79%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April? May 12 $387 +$249 +64%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $260 +$90 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $232 −$124 -53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $4,060 −$2,660 -66%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? May 03 $74 +$53 +72%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $2,060 +$1,110 +54%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026? May 01 $191 +$9 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,045 +$31 +3%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026? May 01 $1,728 +$633 +37%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $2,630 +$364 +14%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $320 +$80 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $1,780 +$20 +1%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 29 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? Apr 28 $2 +$29 +1412%
OKX IPO in 2026? Apr 26 $83 +$7 +8%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in April? Apr 24 $68 −$68 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in April? Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 22 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 22 $781 −$67 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 22 $461 −$329 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 22 $323 −$323 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 22 $334 −$334 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 22 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 22 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 22 $440 −$440 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June? BUY Yes 54¢ $110 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $80 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 22h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 37¢ $74 35h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $384 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $63 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $140 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $19 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $2 5d
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative electio BUY No 65¢ $94 7d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $30 7d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $30 7d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $30 7d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 9d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? BUY No 51¢ $14 9d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 9d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 9d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? BUY No 51¢ $37 9d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $130 9d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 9d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,438.76 · official $10,484.65 (match) · 3500 history records