Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf58c…2747 crypto 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$597 (+5%) realized +$591 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%95W / 142L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$439
7 days−$336
14 days−$219
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$345
other 15% +$561
sports 13% +$239
finance 6% +$70
world 6% +$262
tech 4% −$23
politics 2% −$257
economics 1% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -18.1% -25.9% 17% 17% -36.0%
≤30d 145 -6.7% -15.6% 34% 32% -16.4%
≤90d 146 -6.4% -15.4% 35% 32% -14.4%
all 237 -7.8% -16.6% 40% 38% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 38% -5.7%
10% -24.6% 35% -14.7%
15% -31.9% 28% -23.0%
20% -38.5% 21% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$27 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$1,121
Realized+$591
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses95 / 142
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)237 / 254
History coverage595d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 87¢ 93¢ $400 $426 +$26 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 24¢ 70¢ $50 $147 +$97 (+194%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $80 $73 −$7 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 61¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-41%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 47¢ 10¢ $75 $17 −$58 (-78%)
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$31 -60%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$101 +982%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$17 +55%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$73 +712%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$35 -68%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$21 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $58 +$38 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $130 −$22 -17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$38 +366%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 +$19 +9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 21h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 36h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 77¢ $48 47h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 40¢ $31 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $82 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,121.34 · official $1,121.34 (match) · 633 history records