Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf58e…a0b0 other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$738 (+8%) realized +$734 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%37W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$1,531
14 days+$1,394
30 days+$1,691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% +$662
world 28% −$432
other 25% +$444
tech 13% +$476
politics 3% −$296
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +24.6% +12.7% 62% 60% +29.3%
≤30d 47 +64.9% +49.2% 64% 62% +25.7%
≤90d 67 +28.6% +16.3% 49% 48% +0.5%
all 73 +24.4% +12.5% 51% 47% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 47% +0.0%
10% +1.8% 47% -9.5%
15% -8.1% 42% -18.3%
20% -17.1% 37% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$80 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1,176
Realized+$734
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses37 / 36
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions17
Markets (closed)73 / 90
History coverage110d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $363 $356 −$8 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $100 $168 +$68 (+68%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $61 $64 +$3 (+5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 58¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the World Cup? Yes 14¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 19¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-22%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ $21 $10 −$11 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $25 +$15 +60%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$210 +206%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots Jun 17 $66 −$65 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $62 −$61 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $128 −$126 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $76 +$27 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $53 +$23 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$9 -34%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $66 +$36 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $62 +$40 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 +$45 +79%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$19 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 +$72 +200%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 +$3 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$15 -30%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 +$24 +93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $457 +$281 +61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $814 +$196 +24%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$75 +146%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $255 +$388 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $835 −$410 -49%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $15 +$273 +1822%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 31 $30 +$17 +55%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $158 +$268 +170%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $50 +$66 +133%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $367 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $62 8h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $63 8h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 8h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots BUY Yes 62¢ $66 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $56 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $62 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $128 8h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 75¢ $76 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $17 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $53 31h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $76 31h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 31h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 31h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 31h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $66 31h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $62 31h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $102 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $57 31h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $26 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $108 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $79 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,176.39 · official $1,176.39 (match) · 250 history records