Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf591…b8c7 sports 331 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%208W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$125
14 days−$122
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$59
finance 30% +$100
weather 16% −$110
sports 6% −$46
politics 1% $0
other 1% −$8
world 0% −$4
tech 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +14.3% +3.4% 67% 58% -21.0%
≤30d 79 -9.7% -18.3% 59% 48% -19.1%
≤90d 232 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 42% -11.4%
all 324 -3.7% -12.9% 64% 48% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 48% -11.5%
10% -21.2% 38% -19.9%
15% -28.8% 25% -27.7%
20% -35.8% 13% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses208 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)324 / 331
History coverage242d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Algeria 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Colombia 83¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 27 $180 −$75 -42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 $0 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $175 −$19 -11%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 $0 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $115 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $180 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $172 +$8 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 24 $25 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $58 −$8 -14%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Jun 24 $12 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $7 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +48%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 $0 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +24%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on or prior to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +29%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +27%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +23%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 25¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 24¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 63¢ $156 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 70¢ $175 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 28¢ $107 46h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $115 46h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 71¢ $176 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 72¢ $180 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 90¢ $180 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 86¢ $172 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.87 · official $31.87 (match) · 726 history records