Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf596…d6ec crypto 13 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (848 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5,878 (+26%) realized +$5,878 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,708per market
Trades / day848.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,848
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (848 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -28.8% -35.6% 31% 31% +10.3%
≤30d 13 -28.8% -35.6% 31% 31% +10.3%
≤90d 13 -28.8% -35.6% 31% 31% +10.3%
all 13 -28.8% -35.6% 31% 31% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover848.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.6% 31% +10.3%
10% -41.7% 31% -0.2%
15% ← realistic here -47.4% 31% -9.9%
20% -52.5% 23% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
78.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,450 vs −$995 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,878
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,708
Trades / day848.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $311 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $351 +$833 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $6,433 +$3,488 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $4,540 +$8,693 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $943 −$914 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $1,828 +$783 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $214 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $6,686 −$6,686 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $314 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $311 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1031 history records