Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf597…5ef0 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-13%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$3
sports 30% −$36
crypto 8% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.5% -36.2% 47% 47% -31.0%
≤30d 15 -29.5% -36.2% 47% 47% -31.0%
≤90d 15 -29.5% -36.2% 47% 47% -31.0%
all 17 -23.6% -30.9% 53% 53% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 53% -23.9%
10% -37.5% 41% -31.2%
15% -43.5% 35% -37.8%
20% -49.1% 18% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$28 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage242d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 59¢ 64¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 +$16 +79%
Rainbow Six Siege: Daystar vs Fury (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia - Jun 18 $27 +$10 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$16 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $49 +$9 +18%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? Oct 22 $50 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $30 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 26h
Rainbow Six Siege: Daystar vs Fury (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia - BUY Daystar 73¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 60¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 240d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 241d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.69 · official $69.69 (match) · 31 history records