Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf599…aa6f crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$257 (-23%) realized +$351 · open −$608
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$731
sports 8% −$90
crypto 4% −$45
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-83.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 16 -81.3% -83.1% 6% 6% -92.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.1% 6% -92.3%
10% -84.7% 6% -93.0%
15% -86.2% 6% -93.7%
20% -87.5% 6% -94.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$351
Unrealized−$608
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage203d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 12¢ $800 $192 −$608 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $127 −$120 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners Mar 27 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential elect Dec 11 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential elect Dec 11 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on Decem Dec 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Dec 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? Dec 08 $10 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Dec 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 07 $7 +$4 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 7 Dec 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 7? Dec 07 $10 −$5 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $844 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $127 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 92d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 92d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 22¢ $20 92d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 22¢ $20 92d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $50 92d
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 198d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 198d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $0 198d
Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on Decem BUY Yes 16¢ $6 201d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 201d
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 201d
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 202d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 202d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 202d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential elect BUY Yes 5¢ $1 202d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $1 202d
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? SELL No 35¢ $11 202d
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? BUY No 23¢ $7 202d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 7 BUY Yes 0¢ $10 202d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 7? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 202d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 7? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.31 · official $192.31 (match) · 24 history records