Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf59c…a682 sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,463 (+3%) realized +$2,775 · open +$688
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 58L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,068per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1,109est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$6,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$3,975
14 days+$3,975
30 days+$3,975
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$14,395
other 33% −$8,784
crypto 9% −$2,633
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -8.9% -17.5% 46% 38% -3.0%
≤30d 48 -8.9% -17.5% 46% 38% -3.0%
≤90d 93 -20.8% -28.3% 38% 33% -7.2%
all 93 -20.8% -28.3% 38% 33% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 33% -7.2%
10% -35.2% 29% -16.1%
15% -41.4% 27% -24.2%
20% -47.2% 20% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,264) neutral
Persistence
early -30% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,183 vs −$674 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$6,288
Realized+$2,775
Unrealized+$688
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,109
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage54d
Avg bet$1,068
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 56¢ $5,500 $6,250 +$750 (+14%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $100 $38 −$62 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,867 +$1,722 +44%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $206 +$2 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $306 +$550 +180%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$107 -52%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$188 -91%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,022 +$1,103 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$75 -37%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 −$131 -64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,818 +$866 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $524 +$1,309 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,037 +$23 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,308 −$6,883 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $906 −$601 -66%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5,973 +$3,391 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,264 −$653 -52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,971 −$787 -40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,998 +$2,032 +51%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,994 −$866 -44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $75 −$64 -85%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $386 −$364 -94%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $512 −$491 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,145 +$714 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $567 +$370 +65%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,028 +$3,531 +344%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,022 −$726 -71%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $111 −$94 -85%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$86 -87%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,587 +$100 +4%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $438 −$350 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,014 −$634 -62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,808 +$300 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $400 −$380 -95%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,020 +$1,007 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,112 +$602 +54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $359 +$247 +69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $713 +$1,127 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1,447 −$687 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $419 +$101 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $316 −$52 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $423 −$101 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $212 −$83 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $417 +$30 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $208 +$288 +138%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $1,985 −$1,940 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $3,083 −$3,014 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 36m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $508 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5,075 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5,588 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $837 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $33 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $3,030 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $23 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $122 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $856 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $306 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $97 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,022 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $130 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $75 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,684 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,818 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $524 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $526 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $428 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $424 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,288.45 · official $6,289.55 (match) · 356 history records