Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf59e…f0bf sports 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 561d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,872 (+2%) realized +$2,009 · open −$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate59%133W / 91L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$432est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5,167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,047
7 days−$1,243
14 days−$364
30 days−$1,694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$3,122
other 32% +$2,170
crypto 10% +$1,680
world 7% −$479
politics 7% +$434
economics 5% +$529
culture 2% +$128
tech 1% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +11.7% +1.0% 53% 53% -19.3%
≤30d 185 +1.4% -8.3% 57% 37% -14.2%
≤90d 203 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 33% -15.1%
all 224 +1.1% -8.5% 59% 33% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 33% -8.1%
10% -17.3% 29% -16.9%
15% -25.3% 26% -24.9%
20% -32.6% 25% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$151 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$5,167
Realized+$2,009
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses133 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$432
Open positions5
Markets (closed)224 / 229
History coverage561d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,521 $1,531 +$9 (+1%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,376 $1,496 +$120 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,335 $1,358 +$22 (+2%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 44¢ $827 $783 −$44 (-5%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 0¢ $245 $0 −$245 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $249 −$246 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $249 +$214 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $2,961 −$2,922 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $248 +$444 +179%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $249 +$198 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $248 −$244 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $249 −$246 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $249 −$245 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $249 −$246 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $249 −$246 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $249 −$246 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $249 −$246 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $249 −$245 -99%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $249 +$161 +65%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $249 −$246 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $249 −$246 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $249 +$198 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $248 −$244 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,374 +$886 +64%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $253 +$193 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $249 +$168 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $250 +$181 +72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $249 +$261 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $498 −$492 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $249 +$283 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $249 +$168 +67%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $249 +$175 +70%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $256 +$1,214 +474%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $245 +$158 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $249 +$214 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 10 $244 −$11 -4%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $251 +$159 +63%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $249 +$190 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $249 +$232 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $249 −$245 -98%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $249 +$182 +73%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $249 −$245 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $249 +$232 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $249 +$206 +83%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $249 +$241 +97%
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $249 −$246 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $249 +$261 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $249 −$245 -99%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $249 +$168 +67%
Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $252 +$220 +87%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $249 +$232 +93%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 02 $249 −$245 -99%
Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 02 $249 +$241 +97%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 01 $248 −$244 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $10 +$9 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $56 11m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $2 13m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $249 13m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $3 15m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $249 15m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $2 17m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $26 17m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $254 18m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $249 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $249 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $249 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $236 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $244 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $26 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $85 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $244 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $244 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $244 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 52¢ $242 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 52¢ $240 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 52¢ $7 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 52¢ $102 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $28 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $12 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $88 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $64 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $253 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,167.15 · official $5,167.15 (match) · 1216 history records