Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf5a0…6ea4 other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$588 (+0%) realized +$589 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%28W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$1,488per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days+$14
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$118
politics 37% −$97
sports 11% +$780
culture 2% +$17
world 2% −$3
tech 1% +$7
crypto 1% −$28
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -3.2% -12.4% 14% 9% -9.7%
all 144 +6.8% -3.4% 19% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 15% -9.3%
10% -12.6% 15% -18.0%
15% -21.1% 14% -25.9%
20% -28.8% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,094) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$10 · ×6.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,092
Realized+$589
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses28 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,488
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,093 $1,092 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,835 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,636 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,299 −$5 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,557 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $452 +$9 +2%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,785 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,590 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,874 −$6 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $4,729 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,300 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $65 +$60 +93%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,728 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,636 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,182 −$4 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $68 +$54 +79%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,793 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $466 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $670 +$2 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,094 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,471 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,540 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,661 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $1,089 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $6,489 −$7 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 05 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,837 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $9,707 −$8 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3,149 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,093 41m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $338 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $339 2h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,278 43h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,280 45h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,633 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,636 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,598 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,601 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,358 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,360 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $452 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,607 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,609 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,627 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,629 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,630 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,633 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,623 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,626 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,592 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,595 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,612 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,614 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,676 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,678 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,092.08 · official $1,092.08 (match) · 529 history records