Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

F5 0xf5a1…30d1 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$36 (+5%) realized +$24 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown66%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day17.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit16%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$10

7 days+$24

14 days+$24

30 days+$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-5.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+4.7%	-5.2%	58%	47%	-6.6%
≤30d	19	+4.7%	-5.2%	58%	47%	-6.6%
≤90d	19	+4.7%	-5.2%	58%	47%	-6.6%
all	19	+4.7%	-5.2%	58%	47%	-6.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.2%	47%	-6.6%
10%	-14.3%	16%	-15.5%
15%	-22.6%	11%	-23.7%
20%	-30.2%	5%	-31.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +13% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.34 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$24

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage4d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day17.4

Drawdown66%

Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	No	0¢	0¢	$45	$0	−$45 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$46	−$3	-7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$46	−$45	-97%
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$46	+$9	+19%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$46	+$8	+18%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$46	+$7	+16%
Will FK Haugesund win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$6	+$1	+17%
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$46	−$3	-6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$46	−$1	-2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$46	−$2	-4%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$100	+$25	+25%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$46	+$22	+48%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$46	+$3	+6%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	+$2	+95%
Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$45	+$4	+9%
Will IFK Mariehamn win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$25	−$17	-66%
Will Derry City FC win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$45	+$7	+15%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$47	+$8	+18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$8	$0	-6%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 10	$16	−$1	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	55¢	$22	1h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	55¢	$15	1h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	56¢	$6	1h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	58¢	$46	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	0¢	$46	5h
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	84¢	$54	6h
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	82¢	$1	6h
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	82¢	$51	6h
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	86¢	$2	6h
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	70¢	$46	6h
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	69¢	$46	6h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	86¢	$7	9h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	86¢	$1	9h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	86¢	$1	9h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	87¢	$9	9h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	87¢	$10	9h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	87¢	$9	9h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	87¢	$1	9h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	86¢	$5	9h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	86¢	$10	9h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	74¢	$46	9h
Will FK Haugesund win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	70¢	$7	9h
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	78¢	$43	9h
Will FK Haugesund win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	59¢	$6	9h
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	82¢	$46	9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	SELL No	68¢	$45	18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	46¢	$43	18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	46¢	$1	18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY No	68¢	$46	18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$46	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records