Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5a6…e335 sports 15 markets active 10h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$125 (-16%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$192
14 days−$131
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$189
other 4% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -49.4% -54.2% 33% 33% -38.0%
≤30d 15 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 40% -25.0%
≤90d 15 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 40% -25.0%
all 15 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 40% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 40% -25.0%
10% -38.2% 40% -32.1%
15% -44.2% 40% -38.7%
20% -49.7% 13% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$38 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $100 −$99 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 +$22 +43%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $171 +$78 +46%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 +$21 +69%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $94 −$93 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$59 +191%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$12 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records