Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5a8…14cc sports 514 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$293 (-8%) realized −$291 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%228W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day66.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$2
14 days−$86
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$411
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +4.0% -5.9% 54% 52% -10.5%
≤30d 505 -8.3% -17.1% 45% 45% -19.7%
≤90d 505 -8.3% -17.1% 45% 45% -19.7%
all 505 -8.3% -17.1% 45% 45% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 45% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 41% -27.4%
15% -32.2% 39% -34.4%
20% -38.9% 35% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses228 / 277
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions9
Markets (closed)505 / 514
History coverage25d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day66.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) G2 Ares 59¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) FUT Esports 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner RUSTEC 49¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$1 -34%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 +$3 +119%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $3 +$3 +119%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $2 +$4 +167%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen (BO5) - UKIC Masters Divisi Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +89%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $3 +$3 +89%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$4 +220%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +160%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$4 +191%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $3 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $11 +$4 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $13 −$3 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $2 2m
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $3 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY RUSTEC 49¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 39¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 74¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $5 17h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $3 18h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) BUY G2 Ares 59¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Ground Zero 87¢ $5 21h
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) SELL Infinite 100¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL Leo Team 100¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $2 24h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $2 24h
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 64¢ $3 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs SELL Alliance 100¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $1 31h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 86¢ $4 36h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $4 38h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY 1WIN 41¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.11 · official $22.70 (match) · 1944 history records