Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F5 0xf5a8…9643 sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover

✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$794 (+11%) realized +$794 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate38%12W / 20L

Drawdown93%max

Avg bet$227per market

Trades / day117.5pace

Fees−$127est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-24.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	32	-16.2%	-24.2%	38%	28%	-8.8%
≤30d	32	-16.2%	-24.2%	38%	28%	-8.8%
≤90d	32	-16.2%	-24.2%	38%	28%	-8.8%
all	32	-16.2%	-24.2%	38%	28%	-8.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover117.5 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-24.2%	28%	-8.8%
10% ← realistic here	-31.5%	28%	-17.5%
15%	-38.1%	28%	-25.5%
20%	-44.1%	28%	-32.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$208 vs −$122 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.02 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$794

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses12 / 20

Est. fees paid−$127

Open positions0

Markets (closed)32 / 32

History coverage1d

Avg bet$227

Trades / day117.5

Drawdown93%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 32 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$415	−$166	-40%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$366	−$285	-78%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama?	Jun 17	$95	−$55	-58%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$304	−$182	-60%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$130	+$70	+54%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$161	+$240	+149%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$325	−$193	-59%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$250	−$250	-100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$301	+$399	+133%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$63	−$51	-80%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$205	+$367	+179%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$300	+$11	+4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$48	−$48	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$315	−$315	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$102	−$102	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$96	−$96	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$440	+$560	+127%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1	$0	-70%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$168	−$71	-42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$427	+$272	+64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$192	+$108	+56%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$530	+$273	+52%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$303	+$181	+60%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 17	$114	+$3	+3%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 17	$110	−$110	-100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 17	$98	−$98	-100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$305	−$98	-32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	Jun 16	$107	−$64	-60%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$204	+$13	+7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$439	−$79	-18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$216	−$100	-46%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$125	−$76	-61%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	25¢	$249	14m
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	14¢	$81	17m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama?	SELL Yes	4¢	$40	23m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	18¢	$123	24m
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	47¢	$49	40m
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	62¢	$317	53m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$304	57m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama?	BUY Yes	9¢	$95	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$415	1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$200	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$401	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	27¢	$132	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$9	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$27	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$22	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$65	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$25	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$27	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$6	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$78	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$35	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$4	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$19	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	65¢	$7	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	40¢	$41	3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	40¢	$120	3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$250	3h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	65¢	$1	3h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	65¢	$129	3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	2¢	$13	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records