Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F5 0xf5aa…4464 sports 1265 markets active 0h ago coverage 710d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 709d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,449 (-1%) realized −$1,447 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%654W / 599L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2,377est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 710d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,897
politics 1% −$303
other 0% −$370
economics 0% −$19
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +22.9% +11.2% 68% 63% -0.9%
≤30d 234 +10.1% -0.4% 59% 54% -20.9%
≤90d 1074 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 44% -14.6%
all 1253 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 50% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 50% -11.1%
10% -16.7% 49% -19.6%
15% -24.8% 46% -27.3%
20% -32.2% 42% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$141 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$1,400
Realized−$1,447
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses654 / 599
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,377
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1253 / 1265
History coverage710d ⚠
Avg bet$169
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 64¢ 64¢ $1,031 $1,023 −$8 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Zeynep Sonmez 71¢ 100¢ $106 $149 +$43 (+41%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Raphael Collignon 79¢ 78¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 66¢ 48¢ $51 $38 −$14 (-27%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 63¢ 64¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Lorenzo Sonego 60¢ 64¢ $23 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Alexandra Eala 50¢ 48¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $29 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 36¢ 44¢ $9 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 36¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Zachary Svajda 76¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $12 +$2 +14%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $392 −$384 -98%
Noskova vs. Eala: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 20 $3 +$3 +109%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $710 +$636 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $1,418 −$184 -13%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $660 +$345 +52%
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 18 $316 +$283 +90%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $283 −$281 -99%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $91 +$92 +101%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $510 +$43 +8%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $138 +$101 +73%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1,278 +$401 +31%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $313 −$307 -98%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $39 +$11 +29%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $37 +$12 +32%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $27 +$23 +86%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $267 +$61 +23%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $200 +$159 +79%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 16 $76 −$76 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $19 +$15 +79%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $193 +$16 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $122 +$61 +50%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $83 +$40 +48%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Jun 16 $342 −$24 -7%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $38 +$12 +31%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $134 +$64 +48%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $28 +$21 +76%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $38 +$12 +31%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $34 +$16 +46%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $108 −$107 -99%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $91 −$90 -99%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $708 −$700 -99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $28 +$22 +80%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $45 +$205 +457%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $710 −$131 -18%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $679 +$421 +62%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $780 +$252 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $32 +$35 +109%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $485 +$308 +64%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $265 −$263 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 +$10 +105%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $33 +$17 +52%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $17 +$15 +90%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $105 +$53 +50%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $808 +$206 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $45 +$15 +34%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $29 +$18 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 64¢ $304 2m
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 64¢ $708 12m
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 60¢ $23 23m
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 66¢ $42 55m
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 66¢ $10 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 79¢ $66 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 64¢ $31 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 63¢ $26 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 50¢ $24 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Zeynep Sonmez 71¢ $107 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $12 10h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 35¢ $392 14h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Zachary Svajda 76¢ $15 19h
Noskova vs. Eala: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 34h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $710 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 51¢ $1,234 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $709 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $709 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 65¢ $660 2d
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 52¢ $316 3d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 70¢ $35 3d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 70¢ $249 3d
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 58¢ $11 3d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 92¢ $24 4d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 92¢ $486 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $313 4d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 76¢ $14 4d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 76¢ $705 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,399.96 · official $1,399.96 (match) · 3440 history records