Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf5ab…c5ae other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$991 (-18%) realized −$715 · open −$276
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$3,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days−$618
14 days−$618
30 days−$618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$206
world 22% −$631
crypto 4% −$176
tech 2% +$40
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.8% -41.1% 33% 33% -39.4%
≤30d 6 -34.8% -41.1% 33% 33% -39.4%
≤90d 11 -33.6% -39.9% 36% 36% -42.0%
all 13 -26.6% -33.5% 38% 38% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 38% -40.5%
10% -39.9% 38% -46.2%
15% -45.7% 31% -51.4%
20% -51.0% 23% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$129 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$3,074
Realized−$715
Unrealized−$276
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage106d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1,000 $985 −$15 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1,000 $764 −$236 (-24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $500 $573 +$73 (+15%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $300 $328 +$28 (+9%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $350 $282 −$68 (-19%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $200 $141 −$59 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$280 +92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$179 -88%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,050 −$549 -52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $101 +$40 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 27 $2 +$2 +80%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 27 $67 −$67 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $20 −$18 -92%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 03 $21 +$5 +26%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 03 $64 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 7m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 28m
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 45h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $97 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $404 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,000 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 2d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $153 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,027 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 71¢ $101 5d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 81d
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,074.05 · official $3,053.22 (match) · 45 history records