Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F5 0xf5b5…be4b sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-17%) realized −$92 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$143
other 18% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% -30.8%
≤30d 4 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% -30.8%
≤90d 4 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% -30.8%
all 4 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 50% -30.8%
10% -37.2% 50% -37.4%
15% -43.3% 50% -43.4%
20% -48.8% 25% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$101 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 46¢ 46¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 +$47 +48%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 46¢ $52 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Division One 54¢ $52 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 55¢ $54 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 46¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 47¢ $102 6h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg SELL ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $161 6h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 62¢ $101 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $102 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.66 · official $99.66 (match) · 14 history records