Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf5ba…5b5e world 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,105 (+3%) realized +$434 · open +$671
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate66%66W / 34L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$1,408
other 5% +$92
politics 4% +$97
culture 4% +$89
sports 2% +$107
finance 1% −$7
crypto 0% +$26
tech 0% +$53
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 78% 22% -7.5%
≤30d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 78% 22% -7.5%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 71% 18% -6.5%
all 100 +9.7% -0.8% 66% 35% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 35% -5.0%
10% -10.3% 22% -14.1%
15% -18.9% 14% -22.4%
20% -26.9% 9% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$18 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$1,998
Realized+$434
Unrealized+$671
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses66 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)100 / 106
History coverage271d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 52¢ 97¢ $781 $1,454 +$674 (+86%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $497 $496 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 64¢ 60¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 78¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5,274 +$148 +3%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $40 +$20 +50%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $441 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $139 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $192 +$1 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $211 +$51 +24%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $742 +$6 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 31 $774 +$178 +23%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $1,820 +$6 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 31 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $171 −$6 -4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $118 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $1,608 +$70 +4%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $119 +$2 +2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 20 $308 −$10 -3%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $84 +$36 +43%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $515 +$47 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 15 $623 +$40 +6%
Will Club Puebla vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw? Mar 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $30 −$3 -10%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? Mar 14 $19 +$4 +21%
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $92 +$6 +6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $817 −$5 -1%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $33 −$30 -89%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 08 $67 −$32 -48%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $44 −$2 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 07 $200 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 5? Mar 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-07? Mar 05 $46 +$9 +20%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 05 $87 +$22 +26%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 02 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31? Mar 02 $20 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $1,640 +$255 +16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 28 $938 −$9 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $928 +$1 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $924 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 18 $198 +$54 +27%
Bills vs. Dolphins Feb 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026? Feb 14 $20 +$2 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 13 $176 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11AM ET Feb 12 $11 +$11 +100%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Feb 12 $145 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $496 6m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 21m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $20 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $24 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,987 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 11h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $13 11h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY Yes 61¢ $1 11h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY Yes 61¢ $2 11h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY Yes 61¢ $3 11h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY Yes 67¢ $34 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $19 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $13 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $212 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $28 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $26 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $22 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $2 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $23 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $1 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $22 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $5 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $19 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,997.61 · official $2,003.11 (match) · 751 history records