Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5bb…bdb8 world 977 markets active 1d ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$162 (+1%) realized −$256 · open +$418
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%157W / 565L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6,437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$25
14 days−$253
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$313
other 12% −$255
politics 10% +$405
tech 5% −$355
sports 1% −$24
economics 1% +$52
weather 0% −$42
finance 0% −$31
culture 0% −$20
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 23% -12.1%
≤30d 225 -12.4% -20.7% 24% 20% -10.2%
≤90d 576 -25.7% -32.7% 21% 19% -6.1%
all 722 -29.9% -36.6% 22% 20% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 20% -11.2%
10% -42.7% 16% -19.7%
15% -48.2% 14% -27.5%
20% -53.3% 11% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$10 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$6,437
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$418
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses157 / 565
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions255
Markets (closed)722 / 977
History coverage150d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 255 History 722 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 74¢ $300 $595 +$295 (+98%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 36¢ $400 $480 +$80 (+20%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 94¢ $300 $436 +$136 (+45%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 41¢ 63¢ $200 $305 +$105 (+53%)
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? No 80¢ 81¢ $250 $256 +$6 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 83¢ 90¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+9%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No 63¢ 50¢ $200 $156 −$44 (-22%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Yes 50¢ 74¢ $100 $148 +$48 (+48%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 60¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 72¢ 89¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? No 79¢ 90¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 90¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? No 82¢ 91¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? No 74¢ 79¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 28¢ 98¢ $30 $104 +$74 (+246%)
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 89¢ 88¢ $103 $101 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No 41¢ 38¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $75 $89 +$14 (+19%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? No 55¢ 86¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+57%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 64¢ 50¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? No 81¢ 60¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 67¢ 87¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$40 +405%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$23 +276%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$11 -52%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$15 +474%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$16 +314%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $8 +$10 +131%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 16 $5 +$14 +263%
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? Jun 16 $250 +$38 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$14 +29%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 24h
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central BUY No 6¢ $3 24h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $101 24h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 11¢ $3 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 24h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $33 34h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $5 2d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 62¢ $25 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 14¢ $3 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $5 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $2 2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $94 2d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,437.31 · official $6,437.42 (match) · 2192 history records