Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5c6…6235 sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$609 (-18%) realized −$606 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%27W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$85
14 days−$103
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$634
sports 41% −$55
crypto 4% +$61
politics 1% −$14
world 1% −$20
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 29% -27.7%
≤30d 26 -24.2% -31.4% 35% 35% -22.1%
≤90d 26 -24.2% -31.4% 35% 35% -22.1%
all 87 -29.3% -36.1% 31% 30% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 30% -27.4%
10% -42.2% 28% -34.4%
15% -47.8% 22% -40.7%
20% -52.9% 11% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$606
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses27 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage240d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $110 +$16 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $28 −$16 -56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 21 $30 −$6 -20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$15 -74%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +72%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $26 +$34 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$15 -71%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$36 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 Jun 16 $26 −$14 -53%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $36 +$8 +21%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $53 +$36 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Nets Mar 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Mar 26 $1,151 −$508 -44%
Will Ivica Zubac win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 26 $193 −$193 -100%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Mar 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 03 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 05 $100 +$60 +60%
Knicks vs. Magic Nov 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 22 $184 +$44 +24%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Nov 15 $363 +$112 +31%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Nov 13 $280 +$98 +35%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 05 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Nov 05 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Nov 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will Amen Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Nov 05 $2 $0 -18%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 05 $2 $0 -22%
Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Nov 05 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Pope Francis be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 202 Nov 05 $2 $0 -22%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 05 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 05 $4 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $60 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 12h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $49 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $22 12h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 57¢ $24 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 5d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 5d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $60 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 7d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.91 · official $83.91 (match) · 242 history records