Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F5 0xf5c8…430c politics 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11,009 (+56%) realized +$11,098 · open −$89
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate80%53W / 13L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$543
30 days+$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% +$4,795
other 6% +$32
crypto 3% −$52
sports 3% +$547
world 1% +$5,692
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +5.7% -4.4% 69% 31% +0.5%
≤90d 66 +62.7% +47.2% 80% 33% +6.1%
all 66 +62.7% +47.2% 80% 33% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.2% 33% +6.1%
10% +33.1% 23% -4.0%
15% +20.3% 15% -13.3%
20% +8.5% 14% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +116% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$49 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.29 per $1 lost it wins $18.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$917
Realized+$11,098
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses53 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)66 / 73
History coverage77d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $498 +$545 +109%
Will Trump say "South Carolina" 7+ times during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? May 25 $54 +$5 +9%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $1,082 +$33 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 23 $1,409 −$271 -19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 23 $46 +$4 +10%
Will Donald Trump visit Connecticut in 2026? May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? May 20 $29 +$3 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? May 20 $92 −$4 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 20 $123 −$6 -5%
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $317 +$82 +26%
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $166 +$36 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $40 +$4,152 +10363%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $51 +$5,694 +11273%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 08 $522 −$77 -15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026? May 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Chappell Roan attend the Met Gala? May 05 $76 +$6 +7%
Will Ice Spice attend the Met Gala? May 05 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026? May 04 $534 +$8 +2%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Data Center" in Michigan? May 04 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Healthcare" in Michigan? May 04 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Election" in Michigan? May 04 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Bernie Sanders's remarks not air? May 04 $349 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026? May 04 $20 −$18 -92%
Will Trump say "Waiter" or "Waitress" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $140 +$20 +14%
Will Trump say "Unaffordable Care Act" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $153 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $2,100 +$20 +1%
Will Trump say "Obamacare" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $130 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 1, 2026? May 01 $97 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $348 +$18 +5%
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner? Apr 26 $331 +$14 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $4,020 +$289 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during healthcare event? Apr 24 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during healthcare event? Apr 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remark Apr 22 $1 +$1 +150%
Will no qualifying event occur? Apr 22 $287 +$6 +2%
Will Trump say "Gay" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21? Apr 21 $267 +$16 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1,053 +$142 +14%
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Trump" during CNBC: Squaw Apr 21 $107 +$8 +7%
Will Kevin Warsh say "Trump" during Nomination Hearing? Apr 21 $194 +$15 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026? Apr 20 $31 +$19 +61%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this Apr 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Trump say "Gay" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $27 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $14 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $68 1h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $18 1h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $37 11h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $33 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $6 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $917.44 · official $917.45 (match) · 557 history records