Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5d1…aee4 crypto 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (302 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-2%) realized −$61 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%62W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day301.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$111
14 days−$281
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$158
sports 9% −$39
other 9% −$32
weather 5% −$50
world 2% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (302 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -29.0% -35.7% 17% 15% -16.3%
≤30d 267 -17.6% -25.4% 23% 19% -16.7%
≤90d 267 -17.6% -25.4% 23% 19% -16.7%
all 267 -17.6% -25.4% 23% 19% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover301.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 19% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 16% -24.7%
15% -39.1% 13% -32.0%
20% -45.1% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses62 / 205
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)267 / 265
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day301.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$7 -8411%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1594%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$7 +10095%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -4152%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$8 -38%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 −$7 -18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 −$3 -15%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $38 −$9 -23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$3 -13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$17 -86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 +$32 +126%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -91%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10 Jun 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 +$4 +51%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 $0 -24%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -23%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $16 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.36 · official $21.72 · 3500 history records