Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf5d3…e1df sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,844 (+33%) realized +$3,028 · open −$1,184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$693per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,091
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +34.6% +21.8% 83% 83% +43.0%
≤30d 6 +34.6% +21.8% 83% 83% +43.0%
≤90d 6 +34.6% +21.8% 83% 83% +43.0%
all 6 +34.6% +21.8% 83% 83% +43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.8% 83% +43.0%
10% ← realistic here +10.1% 67% +29.4%
15% -0.5% 67% +16.9%
20% -10.3% 50% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$475 vs −$100 · ×4.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.74 per $1 lost it wins $23.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized+$3,028
Unrealized−$1,184
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$693
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 56¢ 100¢ $206 $372 +$165 (+80%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 19¢ 1¢ $1,390 $41 −$1,349 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $831 +$688 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $861 +$594 +69%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$20 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $508 +$499 +98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,513 +$574 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 20¢ $154 23m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $209 34m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 9¢ $247 43m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 28¢ $511 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 23¢ $512 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 56¢ $253 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 53¢ $578 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 81¢ $308 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 59¢ $122 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $101 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $506 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $254 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $508 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1,513 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.62 · official $412.62 (match) · 20 history records