Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf5d3…694f crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$100 (+2%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%69W / 45L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$37
14 days+$56
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$17
sports 33% +$44
crypto 6% +$18
world 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.5% -15.4% 66% 31% -8.6%
≤30d 60 +13.8% +3.0% 72% 47% -7.6%
≤90d 114 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 46% -7.6%
all 114 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 46% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 46% -7.6%
10% -14.1% 38% -16.5%
15% -22.4% 37% -24.5%
20% -30.0% 32% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses69 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage39d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $489 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 −$25 -30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $99 $0 +0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $96 +$3 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $80 +$11 +13%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,092 +$7 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $80 +$7 +9%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $238 +$1 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $81 −$3 -4%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $81 $0 -0%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $75 +$5 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $224 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $67 +$7 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $45 +$22 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $23 +$5 +20%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 +$10 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$17 -66%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $26 +$4 +17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 −$2 -9%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $418 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $80 +$2 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $67 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $67 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $68 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $68 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $83 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $84 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $56 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $71 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $99 20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $96 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 23h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $1 23h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $80 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 276 history records