Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5d7…a2fd sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$70 (+50%) realized +$69 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day171.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$12
other 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -28.0% -34.8% 23% 23% -24.1%
≤30d 35 -28.0% -34.8% 23% 23% -24.1%
≤90d 35 -28.0% -34.8% 23% 23% -24.1%
all 35 -28.0% -34.8% 23% 23% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover171.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.8% 23% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 14% -31.4%
15% -46.8% 11% -38.0%
20% -52.0% 6% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day171.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 75¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Yulia Starodubtseva 27¢ 55¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+102%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 83¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $28 −$8 -29%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $8 +$5 +70%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $4 $0 -12%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $9 −$1 -11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$2 -19%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$2 -36%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -31%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 2¢ $1 41m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 2¢ $0 41m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 37¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 27¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 19¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 20¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Maya Joint 80¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 73¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 1¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 99¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 97¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 23¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 26¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 27¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 27¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 30¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 30¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 30¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 29¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 24¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 24¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 24¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 15¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 17¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 44¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 43¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 42¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 31¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 36¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 36¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.54 · official $9.54 (match) · 177 history records