Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:57:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5d7…94ad crypto 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$128 (+48%) realized +$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 33% +33.5%
≤30d 3 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 33% +33.5%
≤90d 3 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 33% +33.5%
all 3 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 33% +33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 33% +33.5%
10% -30.8% 33% +20.7%
15% -37.5% 33% +9.1%
20% -43.6% 33% -1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +48% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$56 · ×4.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $156 +$240 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records