Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F5 0xf5d8…185a sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$420 (-25%) realized −$409 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip

Net edge-50%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%9W / 21L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$36per market

Trades / day8.6pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-45.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	30	-40.2%	-45.9%	30%	30%	-44.4%
≤30d	30	-40.2%	-45.9%	30%	30%	-44.4%
≤90d	30	-40.2%	-45.9%	30%	30%	-44.4%
all	30	-40.2%	-45.9%	30%	30%	-44.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-45.9%	30%	-44.4%
10%	-51.1%	20%	-49.8%
15%	-55.8%	20%	-54.6%
20%	-60.1%	13%	-59.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -40% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -29% → late -51% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$38 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$569

Realized−$409

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses9 / 21

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions18

Markets (closed)30 / 48

History coverage6d

Avg bet$36

Trades / day8.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 18 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Under	27¢	28¢	$29	$31	+$2 (+6%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Under	53¢	56¢	$29	$30	+$1 (+5%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	Under	38¢	38¢	$29	$29	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Morocco	39¢	40¢	$28	$29	+$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	Under	75¢	76¢	$28	$29	+$1 (+2%)
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	Morocco	21¢	22¢	$28	$28	+$1 (+2%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	Over	63¢	62¢	$29	$28	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Czechia	75¢	74¢	$28	$28	−$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	No	26¢	26¢	$28	$28	−$1 (-2%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5	Over	84¢	84¢	$28	$28	−$0 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Under	40¢	38¢	$29	$28	−$1 (-4%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	Under	25¢	22¢	$29	$26	−$3 (-10%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Haiti	39¢	36¢	$28	$26	−$2 (-6%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Over	41¢	40¢	$27	$26	−$1 (-4%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Under	19¢	18¢	$28	$26	−$2 (-8%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Haiti	62¢	60¢	$26	$26	−$1 (-2%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5	Over	97¢	96¢	$26	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	No	31¢	28¢	$27	$25	−$2 (-8%)
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	Haiti	80¢	78¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-2%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	Under	90¢	90¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	No	18¢	18¢	$24	$24	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$30	−$30	-100%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$32	+$50	+158%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$31	−$31	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$31	−$31	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$32	−$32	-100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$33	−$33	-100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$36	−$36	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$34	−$34	-100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 23	$36	−$36	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$35	+$49	+140%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$36	−$36	-100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$51	−$51	-100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$36	−$36	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$36	−$36	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$35	−$35	-100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$37	+$49	+134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5	Jun 21	$33	+$6	+17%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$34	+$14	+42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$51	+$166	+325%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 21	$36	−$36	-100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$37	−$37	-100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 21	$36	−$36	-100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$37	−$37	-100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$37	−$37	-100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Jun 21	$34	+$7	+20%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$35	+$7	+18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Jun 21	$35	+$14	+40%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$51	−$51	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$51	−$51	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	26¢	$29	15m
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	BUY Morocco	21¢	$28	1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY Morocco	39¢	$29	1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Czechia	75¢	$29	6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	18¢	$25	7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	90¢	$25	7h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	BUY Haiti	80¢	$25	7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	97¢	$26	7h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY Haiti	62¢	$27	7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	41¢	$27	7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	84¢	$28	7h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Haiti	39¢	$28	7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	63¢	$29	7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	75¢	$28	13h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$29	13h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	27¢	$30	13h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$30	13h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	25¢	$30	13h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	38¢	$30	14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	31¢	$28	19h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$29	19h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	40¢	$29	19h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	75¢	$31	22h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	55¢	$31	22h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	38¢	$32	24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	34¢	$32	29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	37¢	$33	34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	37¢	$34	39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$35	41h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$36	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.66 · official $568.68 (match) · 81 history records