Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F5 0xf5dc…dec3 weather 1307 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$547 (+3%) realized +$607 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate68%1068W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day60.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% +$323
sports 11% +$290
other 7% +$92
world 1% −$22
crypto 1% +$45
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 455 -65.7% -69.0% 28% 16% -58.8%
≤30d 1075 -23.8% -31.1% 62% 31% -24.6%
≤90d 1560 -17.2% -25.1% 68% 34% -21.0%
all 1560 -17.2% -25.1% 68% 34% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 34% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 18% -28.5%
15% -38.8% 10% -35.4%
20% -44.8% 5% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$703
Realized+$607
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1068 / 492
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions48
Markets (closed)1560 / 1307
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day60.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 1560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? No 70¢ 100¢ $25 $35 +$11 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 71¢ 100¢ $19 $26 +$8 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? No 60¢ 97¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? No 63¢ 100¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 79¢ 100¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? No 69¢ 70¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 67¢ 66¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 77¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$4 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? No 78¢ 60¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? No 63¢ 74¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 85¢ 94¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 49¢ 46¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? No 85¢ 92¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 87¢ 92¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? No 84¢ 87¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 68¢ 70¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? No 64¢ 64¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? No 87¢ 88¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? No 71¢ 72¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? No 88¢ 87¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 451 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 2 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 14 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on May 5? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 28 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 17 Jun 15 $0 −$13 -3625%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 5? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on March 29? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 17? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 4? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 26? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 18? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on March 28 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on March 17 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 15 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 17? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 22? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 23 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 49¢ $15 0m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 48¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $15 11m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $15 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $15 26m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $15 28m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $15 53m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $4 53m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $15 56m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $7 56m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $15 26h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $17 26h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $15 26h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 35¢ $15 28h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 35¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $15 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $702.64 · official $704.29 (match) · 3500 history records