Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F5 0xf5dd…f050 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$178 (+26%) realized +$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$207
other 5% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 62% 62% +16.4%
≤30d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 62% 62% +16.4%
≤90d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 62% 62% +16.4%
all 13 -1.4% -10.8% 62% 62% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 62% +16.4%
10% -19.3% 46% +5.2%
15% -27.1% 23% -4.9%
20% -34.3% 23% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$6 · ×4.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.73 per $1 lost it wins $7.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $12 +$16 +126%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$17 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $161 +$36 +22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$8 -53%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $190 +$30 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $32 +$5 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $121 +$41 +34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $84 +$69 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 19¢ $28 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 8¢ $12 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 24¢ $7 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $161 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $15 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Engl BUY 24¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $15 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will Argentina win on BUY 55¢ $10 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $190 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $32 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $121 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $84 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records