Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5dd…a04e crypto 517 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$375 (+0%) realized +$354 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate69%354W / 157L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,124per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$90
14 days−$311
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$657
other 9% +$1,120
weather 3% +$160
world 2% −$1,874
sports 2% +$115
politics 0% +$60
tech 0% +$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 56% 25% -9.8%
≤30d 53 +23.9% +12.1% 74% 21% -9.6%
≤90d 256 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 23% -9.9%
all 511 +0.3% -9.2% 69% 23% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 23% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 20% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 19% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 15% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$1,863) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$54 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$354
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses354 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)511 / 517
History coverage240d
Avg bet$1,124
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? No 83¢ 100¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 74¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? No 12¢ 13¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4,500 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 25 $51 +$17 +33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,000 +$8 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4,600 +$4 +0%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? Jun 23 $276 −$168 -61%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 23? Jun 23 $117 −$28 -24%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $11 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,000 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $4,600 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $4,500 +$4 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 19 $120 +$43 +36%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $50 +$12 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $4,700 +$4 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$73 +244%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $156 −$26 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,500 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $4,700 +$4 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,000 −$79 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,000 −$43 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,207 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $5,110 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $4,696 +$12 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $4,975 +$25 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$46 +1106%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,922 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,059 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,772 +$3 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$7 -65%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 06 $20 +$20 +100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $5,001 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,741 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,327 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 1? Jun 01 $3,415 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY No 83¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 7h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $88 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,500 34h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 34h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 37h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,500 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,000 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $101 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $51 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? SELL No 10¢ $20 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $3 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $63 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $37 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $7 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $88 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $162 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $4,600 3d
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 23? SELL No 60¢ $89 3d
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 23? BUY No 78¢ $117 3d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $11 4d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $11 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,000 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.10 · official $308.11 (match) · 1682 history records