trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 12 | $346 | −$104 | -30% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? | Jun 09 | $110 | −$107 | -97% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? | Jun 09 | $128 | +$66 | +51% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 08 | $25 | −$24 | -99% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $138 | −$131 | -94% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 07 | $73 | −$72 | -98% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Jun 05 | $160 | +$4 | +3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | Jun 04 | $322 | +$14 | +4% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $3,815 | +$755 | +20% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? | Jun 03 | $135 | +$112 | +83% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 01 | $218 | −$180 | -83% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $367 | +$43 | +12% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $150 | −$4 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $135 | −$121 | -90% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? | May 29 | $303 | +$40 | +13% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $707 | +$25 | +4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -52.9% | -57.4% | 29% | 14% | -42.8% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -27.4% | -34.3% | 50% | 31% | -2.5% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -27.4% | -34.3% | 50% | 31% | -2.5% |
| all | 16 | -27.4% | -34.3% | 50% | 31% | -2.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.3% | 31% | -2.5% |
| 10% | -40.6% | 12% | -11.8% |
| 15% | -46.3% | 12% | -20.3% |
| 20% | -51.6% | 12% | -28.1% |