Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e0…3b45 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$7
sports 44% −$11
tech 1% $0
other 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 63 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage567d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in May? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April? May 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of March? Apr 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of January? Feb 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1400 in November? Dec 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $2,160 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $2,136 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $2,299 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? Aug 05 $3 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 20 $2 $0 +11%
Will Solana hit $210 in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21 Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $889 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $888 −$1 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $897 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $897 −$1 -0%
Will ETHBTC be between .032-.033 on February 7? Feb 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 12 $2 $0 +1%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.31 on January 3? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on January 3? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 04 $3 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-08? Dec 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? Dec 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? Dec 04 $4 $0 -2%
Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? Dec 04 $20 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Heat Dec 04 $7 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Pelicans Dec 04 $25 $0 -1%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Dec 03 $9 $0 -0%
Hornets vs. Knicks Dec 03 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 28d
Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 58d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $40 93d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 148d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 148d
Will BNB reach $1400 in November? BUY No 100¢ $42 207d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,158 234d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,160 234d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,134 234d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,136 234d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $2,297 234d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,299 234d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 99¢ $18 248d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $1 300d
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 332d
XRP all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 362d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? BUY No 100¢ $2 392d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 393d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 394d
XRP all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 422d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 423d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 423d
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 431d
Will Solana hit $210 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 455d
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? BUY No 99¢ $3 466d
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $895 485d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $895 485d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.08 · official $37.08 (match) · 164 history records