Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf5e1…dfff other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 55L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 73% −$14
other 13% +$8
politics 10% −$7
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% +$56
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +4.8% -5.2% 20% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 58 +6.5% -3.6% 24% 17% -7.9%
all 72 +5.1% -4.9% 24% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 14% -9.3%
10% -14.0% 14% -18.0%
15% -22.3% 14% -25.9%
20% -29.9% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage604d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $53 $0 +1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $146 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $23 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $9 +$7 +73%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $7 +$9 +129%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-13? May 16 $9 +$6 +73%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $241 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 12 $115 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $12 +$7 +65%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $229 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $122 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $123 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $122 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $113 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $116 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$9 +172%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $10 +$7 +64%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 31m
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 19h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 20h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 21h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $58 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $21 25d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $21 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $53 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 28d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 28d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $17 29d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $9 30d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.21 · official $114.21 (match) · 281 history records