Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e3…23c9 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3461 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$533 (+7%) realized +$533 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day3461.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3461 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +17.3% +6.2% 51% 20% -7.9%
≤30d 41 +17.3% +6.2% 51% 20% -7.9%
≤90d 41 +17.3% +6.2% 51% 20% -7.9%
all 41 +17.3% +6.2% 51% 20% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3461.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.2% 20% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -4.0% 17% -16.7%
15% -13.3% 10% -24.7%
20% -21.8% 5% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
91.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$27 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$533
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 38
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day3461.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 59¢ 50¢ $47 $40 −$7 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $390 −$18 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $401 −$71 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $350 −$23 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $161 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$27 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $207 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $407 −$32 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $243 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $247 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $306 −$19 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $143 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $199 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $359 −$87 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $249 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $77 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $421 +$206 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $73 −$13 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $95 +$30 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $248 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $219 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $437 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $93 −$18 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $142 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $168 −$58 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $117 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $403 −$13 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $227 −$27 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $115 −$20 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $369 +$73 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $368 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $178 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$217 +994%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.82 · official $43.27 · 3500 history records