Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e4…8d18 other 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$776 (+13%) realized +$734 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%42W / 110L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$1,427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days+$722
14 days+$704
30 days+$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$1,170
sports 26% −$400
world 2% −$21
crypto 1% −$15
tech 0% −$20
politics 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -11.3% -19.7% 30% 28% +6.0%
≤30d 149 -12.0% -20.4% 27% 26% +4.8%
≤90d 152 -10.8% -19.3% 28% 26% +4.8%
all 152 -10.8% -19.3% 28% 26% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 26% +4.8%
10% -27.0% 25% -5.2%
15% -34.1% 24% -14.4%
20% -40.5% 20% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$11 · ×4.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,427
Realized+$734
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses42 / 110
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions20
Markets (closed)152 / 172
History coverage42d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $533 $537 +$4 (+1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $268 $266 −$2 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 62¢ $123 $169 +$46 (+37%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $89 $86 −$2 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 60¢ 60¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 Mexico? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 Mexico? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $73 +$36 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $1 $0 -22%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$27 +90%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$1 -3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $67 +$33 +50%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $302 −$299 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $68 −$67 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $26 +$19 +73%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 +$20 +97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $6 +$29 +510%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$16 +32%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $77 −$4 -5%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 +$24 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$31 +1494%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,227 +$730 +60%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $13 +$14 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $29 +$13 +44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 +$11 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $816 +$395 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $3 +$6 +194%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 6m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $539 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $69 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $7 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $50 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 52¢ $30 16h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 16h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,427.15 · official $1,427.55 (match) · 257 history records