Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e4…fce7 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$4
other 22% +$2
politics 12% −$2
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.1%
all 43 -2.5% -11.8% 40% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage255d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $54 $48 −$6 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $58 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $56 +$2 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $37 −$5 -13%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Jan 31 $10 $0 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $14 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Nov 04 $8 −$1 -13%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 27 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Stelian Bujduveanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 25 $3 $0 -6%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 25 $2 $0 +4%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $18 +$1 +6%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 17 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $21 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $3 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $54 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $13 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $33 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $7 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $13 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $20 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $30 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $54 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $33 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $32 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $60 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $51 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $58 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.00 · official $48.00 (match) · 193 history records