Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5e5…1a62 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-10%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$27
sports 12% +$11
crypto 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -19.6% -27.3% 42% 42% -16.9%
≤30d 24 -19.6% -27.3% 42% 42% -16.9%
≤90d 24 -19.6% -27.3% 42% 42% -16.9%
all 24 -19.6% -27.3% 42% 42% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 42% -16.9%
10% -34.2% 33% -24.9%
15% -40.6% 25% -32.1%
20% -46.4% 17% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$9 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$10 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$12 +123%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -69%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$9 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$12 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +249%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -84%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $33 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $33 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $24 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $22 42h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $22 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $45 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $9 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records