Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf5e8…a1ce crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$306 (+4%) realized +$249 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%134W / 49L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$80
14 days+$118
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$200
world 21% +$133
crypto 18% −$21
politics 4% +$8
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -45.1% -50.3% 39% 11% -7.7%
≤30d 52 -42.0% -47.5% 42% 15% -7.2%
≤90d 68 -30.5% -37.1% 51% 24% -6.8%
all 183 -6.9% -15.8% 73% 33% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 33% -5.8%
10% -23.9% 14% -14.8%
15% -31.2% 8% -23.0%
20% -38.0% 4% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$1,530
Realized+$249
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses134 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)183 / 191
History coverage166d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 96¢ 100¢ $706 $734 +$28 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $240 $243 +$3 (+1%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 79¢ 82¢ $195 $204 +$9 (+5%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 77¢ 84¢ $175 $192 +$18 (+10%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 +$3 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $150 +$8 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $602 +$80 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $811 +$47 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28? Jun 15 $26 −$14 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $628 +$16 +2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $159 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $388 +$11 +3%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $277 +$9 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $260 +$10 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 14 $147 +$41 +28%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? Jun 06 $115 +$15 +13%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? Jun 06 $98 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $200 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $300 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $137 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $50 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $49 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $68 6h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $200 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $301 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $24 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $30 44h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 73¢ $15 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $50 44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $301 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $88 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 83¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 92¢ $50 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $150 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $858 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $671 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 92¢ $50 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 92¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $566 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,530.17 · official $1,529.15 (match) · 588 history records