Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf5ec…db35
crypto · 12 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$18 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 5 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 63¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% +$19
other 23% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 27m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 28m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 57% +7.3%
≤30d 7 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 57% +7.3%
≤90d 7 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 57% +7.3%
all 7 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 57% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 57% +7.3%
10% -14.3% 43% -2.9%
15% -22.5% 43% -12.3%
20% -30.1% 43% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.42 · official $33.42 (match) · 19 history records