Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F5 0xf5ec…23bd sports 295 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$907 (-1%) realized −$909 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate79%233W / 61L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day135.0pace
Fees−$703est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +8.2% -2.1% 86% 80% +2.0%
≤30d 294 +10.5% -0.1% 79% 72% -7.2%
≤90d 294 +10.5% -0.1% 79% 72% -7.2%
all 294 +10.5% -0.1% 79% 72% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 72% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 33% -16.1%
15% -18.4% 3% -24.2%
20% -26.4% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$331 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$909
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses233 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$703
Open positions1
Markets (closed)294 / 295
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$422
Trades / day135.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner REKONIX 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $377 +$842 +223%
ITF Gyula: Nico Hipfl vs John Sperle Jun 20 $62 +$14 +22%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $58 +$16 +28%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 20 $59 +$16 +27%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz Jun 20 $113 −$113 -100%
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Franziska Sziedat Jun 20 $200 +$26 +13%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Eikeri/Gleason vs Mertens/Zhang Jun 20 $305 −$305 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $187 +$38 +20%
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Linea Bajraliu Jun 19 $403 +$122 +30%
ITF Mohammedia: Luna Vujovic vs Elina Nepliy Jun 19 $414 +$36 +9%
ITF Bucharest: Iulia Maria Buculei vs Lavinia Tanasie Jun 19 $592 +$158 +27%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Volodymyr Iakubenko Jun 19 $58 +$17 +30%
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Kai Wehnelt Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 19 $184 +$40 +22%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 19 $682 +$218 +32%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $70 +$5 +8%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato Jun 19 $67 +$8 +12%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 19 $164 +$36 +22%
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl Jun 19 $1,254 +$396 +32%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 19 $62 +$13 +20%
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Mavie Osterreicher Jun 19 $58 +$16 +28%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 19 $60 +$15 +26%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 19 $171 +$54 +32%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $1,381 +$194 +14%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Jun 18 $230 +$70 +31%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $69 +$6 +8%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Yusuke Kusuhara Jun 18 $172 +$53 +31%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $118 −$44 -37%
ITF Klosters: Kai Wehnelt vs Gian Gruenig Jun 17 $118 +$32 +27%
ITF Monastir: Oluwaseun Peter Ogunsakin vs Danil Panarin Jun 17 $352 +$98 +28%
ITF Mohammedia: Anna Shkutova vs Saumya Ronde Jun 17 $430 +$94 +22%
ITF Klosters: Nicolas Parizzia vs Sandro Kopp Jun 17 $554 +$122 +22%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $64 +$11 +18%
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Liliya Piskun Jun 17 $534 +$66 +12%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Jun 17 $64 +$10 +16%
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $65 +$16 +25%
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh Jun 17 $124 +$26 +20%
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi Jun 17 $483 +$42 +9%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang Jun 17 $181 +$44 +24%
ITF Tokyo: Azuma Visaya vs Naoya Honda Jun 17 $182 +$43 +23%
ITF Maanshan: Seongwoo Cho vs Hiroki Moriya Jun 17 $239 +$67 +28%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 17 $468 −$468 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $173 +$52 +30%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $261 +$39 +15%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $832 +$218 +26%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto Jun 16 $1,778 +$472 +27%
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 15 $736 +$114 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 99¢ $17 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 97¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 98¢ $49 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $20 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 12¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 12¢ $6 1h
Matoula vs. Cengiz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 13¢ $7 1h
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Franziska Sziedat BUY Antonia Stoyanov 89¢ $67 21h
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Franziska Sziedat BUY Antonia Stoyanov 88¢ $66 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.91 · official $99.91 (match) · 3500 history records