Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5ee…7f7e world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 329d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$1
politics 25% $0
other 23% +$1
crypto 9% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -2.5% -11.8% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -2.5% -11.8% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 38 -0.8% -10.3% 32% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage329d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $27 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 10 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8? Aug 10 $12 $0 +4%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Aug 10 $57 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 06 $4 $0 -4%
Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 05 $20 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 04 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jul 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $63 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $3 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $18 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $10 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $11 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $20 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $29 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $17 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $11 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $26 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $9 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $7 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $11 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.76 · official $25.76 (match) · 119 history records