Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf5ee…a64c sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$648 (+4%) realized +$659 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%41W / 51L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days+$931
14 days+$931
30 days+$896
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$953
other 6% +$154
economics 1% −$188
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +20.2% +8.7% 92% 42% -4.5%
≤30d 33 +16.5% +5.4% 79% 39% -4.7%
≤90d 92 -10.2% -18.7% 45% 30% -4.8%
all 92 -10.2% -18.7% 45% 30% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 30% -4.8%
10% -26.5% 22% -13.9%
15% -33.6% 22% -22.2%
20% -40.1% 18% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$31 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$659
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses41 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage56d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season LAZER 88¢ 92¢ $120 $125 +$5 (+5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $58 $43 −$15 (-26%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 71¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,004 +$160 +16%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $902 +$67 +7%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $272 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $1,101 +$43 +4%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $484 +$65 +14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $201 +$36 +18%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $987 +$50 +5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $802 +$105 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $1,844 +$82 +4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $604 +$125 +21%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $1,283 −$942 -73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $1,185 +$99 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $999 +$185 +18%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $962 +$37 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $896 +$66 +7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $788 +$108 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $719 +$69 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $101 +$47 +46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $656 +$13 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $61 +$28 +46%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $101 +$36 +36%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $401 +$25 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $120 +$461 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $52 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $112 +$8 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $104 +$9 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $38 −$37 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $10 −$1 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 29 $10 $0 -3%
Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg? May 25 $5 +$16 +320%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $36 +$19 +53%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 14 $300 −$294 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 12 $109 −$106 -97%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? May 11 $83 −$82 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$419 +409%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 05 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? May 05 $10 $0 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $55 +$49 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $15 +$23 +152%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $1 +$1 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu BUY LAZER 90¢ $100 9m
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu BUY LAZER 83¢ $20 20m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,164 32m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $401 38m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 40m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 40m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 48m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 98¢ $969 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $235 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 85¢ $201 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 32¢ $37 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 92¢ $802 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 86¢ $100 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 53¢ $20 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 62¢ $51 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $1,145 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 96¢ $1,101 5h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 100¢ $549 6h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 88¢ $484 7h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $237 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 80¢ $201 24h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $1,037 25h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 94¢ $987 26h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $988 30h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 95¢ $941 30h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 93¢ $938 30h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 89¢ $903 31h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $908 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.47 · official $177.47 (match) · 322 history records