Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F5 0xf5f4…04c8 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$171 (-30%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -97% what you keep after slip
Net edge-97%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$175
sports 36% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-96.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -96.3% -96.7% 0% 0% -96.8%
≤30d 2 -96.3% -96.7% 0% 0% -96.8%
≤90d 2 -96.3% -96.7% 0% 0% -96.8%
all 2 -96.3% -96.7% 0% 0% -96.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -96.7% 0% -96.8%
10% -97.0% 0% -97.1%
15% -97.3% 0% -97.4%
20% -97.6% 0% -97.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -96% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$188 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $189 −$175 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 28¢ $204 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 24¢ $170 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records