Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf5f8…786d sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,605 (-34%) realized −$1,529 · open −$76
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,191per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,687
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 50% -67.7%
≤90d 2 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 50% -67.7%
all 2 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 50% -67.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 50% -67.7%
10% -27.7% 50% -70.8%
15% -34.7% 50% -73.6%
20% -41.1% 50% -76.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$389 vs −$2,000 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2,124
Realized−$1,529
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1,191
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Lukas Neumayer 50¢ 48¢ $1,300 $1,244 −$56 (-4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Michael Mmoh 63¢ 62¢ $900 $880 −$20 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $507 +$389 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 63¢ $202 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 63¢ $303 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 63¢ $303 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 62¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 49¢ $203 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 49¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 49¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 51¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 51¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 49¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 48¢ $102 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 54¢ $2,028 8d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 56¢ $507 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,124.42 · official $2,124.42 (match) · 19 history records