Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf5f9…81f3 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$118 (+1%) realized −$1,052 · open +$1,170
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$737per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$4,624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$791
14 days−$1,188
30 days−$1,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$476
sports 7% −$493
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -28.0%
≤30d 6 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% -33.1%
≤90d 6 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% -33.1%
all 6 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 50% -33.1%
10% -29.8% 33% -39.5%
15% -36.6% 17% -45.3%
20% -42.8% 17% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$547 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$4,624
Realized−$1,052
Unrealized+$1,170
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage21d
Avg bet$737
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $2,304 $3,107 +$804 (+35%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 52¢ $500 $858 +$358 (+72%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $517 −$192 -37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $303 +$58 +19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,042 −$957 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,016 +$300 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $191 +$96 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 20 $492 −$492 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,623.95 · official $4,623.95 (match) · 35 history records