Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F5 0xf5f9…fa68 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$151 (+6%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate61%41W / 26L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$115
14 days+$115
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$25
other 36% +$79
crypto 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +112.9% +92.6% 71% 40% -3.4%
≤30d 67 +78.1% +61.1% 61% 37% -5.5%
≤90d 67 +78.1% +61.1% 61% 37% -5.5%
all 67 +78.1% +61.1% 61% 37% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +61.1% 37% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here +45.7% 22% -14.5%
15% +31.6% 19% -22.8%
20% +18.7% 16% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +143% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses41 / 26
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage16d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $219 +$5 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $46 +$4 +8%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $23 +$6 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$35 +1326%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $38 −$1 -3%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $91 +$5 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $22 −$1 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $314 +$11 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 +$4 +6%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $79 +$7 +9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $145 +$5 +3%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $71 +$9 +13%
Operário Ferroviário EC leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $50 −$3 -6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $22 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +11%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $97 −$1 -1%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $11 +$4 +40%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $134 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $100 −$8 -8%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -90%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $98 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 −$1 -17%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $54 +$29 +54%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +2%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $0 $0 +70%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +55%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $49 −$6 -13%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$15 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 5¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 4¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 6¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 6¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 6¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 6¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 8¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 8¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 8¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 9¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 9¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 9¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 9¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 9¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 9¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 9¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 12¢ $13 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 10¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 10¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 16¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 13¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 17¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 16¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 607 history records