Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5fe…e23d sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (179 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$211,116 (+124%) realized +$211,104 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate97%66W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,461per market
Trades / day179.3pace
Fees−$4,033est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$46,579
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (179 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +23.5% +11.7% 91% 41% +9.0%
≤30d 68 +49.8% +35.6% 97% 38% +15.1%
≤90d 68 +49.8% +35.6% 97% 38% +15.1%
all 68 +49.8% +35.6% 97% 38% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover179.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.6% 38% +15.1%
10% +22.6% 32% +4.1%
15% ← realistic here +10.7% 22% -5.9%
20% -0.1% 16% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,275) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +80% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
31.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$706 vs −$0 · ×2839.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×93687.34 per $1 lost it wins $93687.34
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,448
Realized+$211,104
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses66 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4,033
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$2,461
Trades / day179.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Gabriela Knutson 15¢ 16¢ $164 $176 +$11 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $1,254 +$81 +6%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Krajicek/Mektic vs Kyrgios/Smith Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $1,638 +$31 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 22 $5,502 +$2,219 +40%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Completed Match: Maya Joint vs Viktorija Golubi Jun 21 $54 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 21 $196 +$8 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Badosa vs Kraus Jun 21 $500 +$10 +2%
Badosa vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 20 $1,858 +$38 +2%
Paula Badosa vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $548 +$11 +2%
Blinkova vs. Putintseva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $17 +$13 +75%
Set Handicap: Blinkova (-1.5) vs Putintseva (+1.5) Jun 20 $57 +$6 +11%
Anna Blinkova vs. Yulia Putintseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$4 +9%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $74 +$70 +95%
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Jun 16 $1,228 +$376 +31%
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Jun 16 $318 +$190 +60%
Lois Boisson vs. Dayana Yastremska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $115 +$40 +35%
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $65 +$71 +110%
Set 1 Winner: Lajal vs Blanchet Jun 16 $105 +$34 +32%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $2,390 +$49 +2%
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $79 +$31 +40%
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Boulter Jun 16 $2,030 +$333 +16%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $2,685 +$55 +2%
Dart vs. Boulter: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $37 +$13 +34%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $1,063 +$50 +5%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $2,197 +$42 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Raducanu vs Pliskova Jun 15 $55 $0 +1%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $78 +$2 +2%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $1,186 +$24 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Pliskova Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $31,743 +$2,257 +7%
Set Handicap: Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 14 $138 +$47 +34%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $611 +$12 +2%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$2 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Munar Jun 14 $852 +$17 +2%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $8,042 +$164 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Gauff Jun 14 $577 +$12 +2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $4,715 +$247 +5%
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,924 +$60 +2%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Kamilla Rakhimo Jun 13 $3,171 +$65 +2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 13 $653 +$13 +2%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Bublik/Kyrgios Jun 12 $73 +$1 +2%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 10 $366 +$7 +2%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $419 +$2 +0%
Mena vs. Rodriguez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $55 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Stojsavljevic (+1.5) Jun 09 $643 +$73 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 8m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 8m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 9m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 9m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 11m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 11m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 11m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 12m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 12m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 13m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $2 15m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $5 34m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $20 54m
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Krajicek/Mektic vs Kyrgios/Smith BUY Kyrgios/Smith 47¢ $10 58m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 47¢ $1,254 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $127 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 12¢ $40 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $2,172 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $8 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $5 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $24 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $84 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $1 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $7 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $11 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $24 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $2 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $1 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $2 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,448.26 · official $1,448.26 (match) · 3500 history records